In 1990 a planning scenario for a major earthquake in San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan area was published. Significant changes in urban growth and population, built environment, cross-border issues, paleo-seismology, seismology, and earthquake engineering in the last two decades prompt the need to update the plan. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) San Diego Chapter, in collaboration with CICESE, SEAOSD, UCSD, OES, FEMA, USGS, CGS and other partners, are leading the update of this scenario.
Extending from offshore of the City of Oceanside through La Jolla and downtown San Diego, past the U.S. – Mexico border adjacent to Tijuana, Mexico, the Rose Canyon Fault is considered to be one of the most active faults near urban areas in San Diego County. A M6.9 scenario earthquake on the Rose Canyon Fault is being utilized to study the effects of this event on the region.
Organized in 2015, the key objective of the earthquake scenario project is a ‘call to action’ for regional earthquake preparation and mitigation to positively affect the region’s disaster resiliency. A team of U.S.- and Mexico-based professionals are working collaboratively to investigate cross-border vulnerability from the M6.9 earthquake. The scenario report is intended to spur public policy and decision making that improves earthquake awareness, preparedness, and earthquake risk management programs.
This presentation and panel will provide an update on the progress of this multi-disciplinary project. The first part of the presentation will cover earth sciences and will discuss the history of damaging earthquakes in the San Diego area and how the scenario earthquake magnitude and the fault rupture length were defined. Secondary hazards like landslides and liquefaction can cause severe damage to buildings and infrastructure in a major event. Different types of secondary hazards relevant to the San Diego and Tijuana areas are being considered in this scenario study and will be discussed in this presentation.
The second part of this presentation will focus on structural engineering aspects of the scenario project including preparation of Hazus models, development vulnerable building inventories, and special topic studies to estimate potential damage impacts to the building stock and lifeline infrastructure in San Diego and Tijuana.
With approximately 5 million inhabitants, and extending from the cities of Carlsbad to Rosarito, the San Diego-Tijuana international conurbation is the third largest in the world, and the US-Mexico border crossing it at its center is the busiest in the world with approximately 50 million crossings per year. It stands to reason that an earthquake scenario along the Rose Canyon fault must be a binational project. The third part of the presentation will focus on the binational aspects of the project and how the overlap of data and results is being implemented.
The fourth part of the presentation will focus on the economic and social impacts from the scenario earthquake to the communities of San Diego and Tijuana, and how the scenario earthquake helps trigger action and change in policy, emergency preparedness, emergency response and earthquake resiliency in the region.
A panel discussion and a questions and answers session will follow the group presentation.
Speakers and panelists:
- Diane Murbach, CEG, Murbach Geotech, Past-President SDAG.
- James R. Gingery, PhD, PE, GE, Kleinfelder Inc.
- Anthony Court, A.B. Court & Associates, SEAOC Fellow.
- Luis Mendoza, CICESE, Lead Researcher.
- Roberto Ruiz-Salas, PE, Kimley-Horn.
- David Racela, Homeland Security Coordinator, City of San Diego OHS.
Facilitators and Moderators:
- Jorge Meneses, PhD, PE, GE, D.GE, F. ASCE, Principal Geotechnical Engineer, RMA Group, EERI San Diego President.
- Lelli Van Den Einde, Ph.D, Associate Teaching Professor, UCSD Department of Structural Engineering.
- Alvaro Celestino, SE, Degenkolb Engineers.